Nifty

Nifty

Nifty is trading in a broader range daily moving 100 to 210 points. Giving good opportunity to traders. Today one of my friend said he is pity on those who do not use SLs in their trade. Yes, if at all they take counter trend trades without SL, we have to be pity on them. India VIX is hovering above 25 and Nifty is trading in a good range where traders can use the opportunity to make good money.  Earlier we posted on Nifty with different time frames of

1. Monthly Diamond Break down bearish pattern
2. Pitch Fork target prices.

In earlier down move, all price target range were met during those time frames. Even in this pull back till yesterday morning first few minutes, we were given target using Expanding triangle pattern when it broke up the channel in which it was travelling earlier. Below are few charts which I was sharing with my near and pear group.

Now I relabeled all EW counts and feel there is more down side in Nifty. Nifty is forming a very rare formation that is triangle formation in 2nd wave of Impulsive 3rd wave C. This formation is very rare in technical EW.  Refer the NCNIFTY_EW_Alternative.

Refer the link here. [Although upon extremely rare occasions a second wave in an impulse appears to take the form of a triangle, triangles nearly always occur in positions prior to the final actionary wave in the pattern of one larger degree]

 Here is the current view of the Nifty with clear labeling. We will see the Nifty move from here on follow strictly. Looking at the current momentum in Nifty it looks it resumed its impulsive nature with its down trend and moving downwards. If that is correct we consider todays fall as impulsive move (iii) rd wave of 3rd wave of C after completion of rare formation expanding triangle of (ii) wave of 3rd of C.

Tomorrows follow up actions and further moves of nifty have to confirm this from here on.


Andrew Pitch Fork:

Looking into the swing moves on Nifty 4 hour charts, Nifty clearly failed to hit the targets of pull back for the swing 6093 to 5118 levels  at around 5635 levels which is a clear sign of bearishness. Earlier also we posted analysis on Nifty with Pitch Fork lines where it failed upside which pulled down the nifty drastically.

Looking into current swing from 5118 to 5580.95 and looking at the targets as per Andrew Pitch Fork lines, targets are falling at below 5175 levels. If EW labeling show above is correct then these targets are easily attainable.

If we look at the supports that Pitch Fork lines can give are the line of the previous Pitch Fork lines which are falling at around 5233.Moving below these lines may warning signal for further correction.

Looking at EMAs.

As expected 34 EMA resisted the move of Nifty and we saw a correction of more than 200 points with Market depth of 250 points. At some point we felt that 12 EMA may give support. But Nifty decided to see lower levels it seems so it could not wait in that range corrected sharply with good volumes. Due the recent rally all indicators are adjusted so that they can provide enough space for Nifty to see more lower levels.
Todays close also below the DLwEMA which signifies the bearishness in the market.

Trade with support and resistance levels in mind. Keep trailing SL is your girl friend along with your fried trend. So keep doing good and happy trading day.

If any pull back seen towards 12 EMA ( for today at 5442) can be used as shorting opportunity with SL above 34 EMA.

As per PSAR on daily charts 5158 seems to be support or trend reversal point.

Nifty

Nifty 

Nifty Nifty Nifty... Everyone eyes on Nifty. People who are good in markets say Nifty have resistance here and support here. If moves above this Nifty visit these levels. Otherwise Big bhom. blah blah.....

People who are not good at market analysis says Market down by XX points.This week market has fallen some XXX points.

Lets see what technicals are speaking about Nifty.

Daily Chart:

Nifty daily chart shows Nifty found support at 5270 levels and bounced back. Nifty is moving in an upward channel for more than a year which is shown in RED trend lines. This channel gave support for the Nifty and Nifty moved up from the channel bottom. Nifty made a lower low by touching 5268 levels showing some weakness.

There are two downward channels in which Nifty is moving on daily charts. One( Brinjal colored channel) started at starting of the year and another(Blue channel) one started in 2 months ago. However Nifty shows that there is trend(Blue channel top) line resistance @ 5550 levels.

RSI seems to be turning down. We can not pressume anything unless price action confirms this.

If Nifty have to confirm its down trend we expect Nifty to find support at bottom of the downward channel around 5190 - 5050 levels marked with Red Circle

If the blue trend line is broken we see next resistance is coming at around 5703 levels.

Using Andrew Pitch fork on Hourly charts,(From GCI MT4 data) Considering the swing high as 5754 and low as 5246.Target would be 5476 which was achieved almost last Friday. Secondly, if we try considering the swing low as 5246 and Swing high as Fridays High 5476 then the target should be 5280.

Suppose if we consider the swing high as 6093 and swing low as 5246 and then the target for this up move would be 5704. This will be confirmed once the Nifty crosses 5550 and stays above.

Intraday chart:

Nifty is still moving in a downward channel.Channel top being around 5620 levels. Chart included Pre open data.From last two days Nifty is moving with mild bullish sentiment and moving in an upward channel. Nifty seems to be at the top end of the channel and bottom is falling around 5360 levels. After having 2 days of rally, Nifty no where giving any kind of -ve divergence to expect a fall. So Nifty may still continue upmove. But Price action anytime may move so that techncicals will adjust.

Nifty predictive move could be formation of HnS pattern. Suppose if Nifty found a resistance at 5504 levels and correct, we may see support at 5364 /5280 levels from which Nifty may bounce back to see sharp up move if at all Nifty feel like rallying. Otherwise, It may visit the bottom of the channel shown in daily charts below 5200
.

EW Lables:

Considering the EW labels. Nifty looks in 2nd wave of 3rd of C if C is in 5 wave structure. Looking for 3rd wave target at 5150 levels.2nd wave of 3rd of C almost pulled back till 1st of 3rd of C which is almost 100% if Nifty see 5504 levels. Nifty moving above this level invalidates that the Nifty is in 3rd wave of C.
EW says that there is a chance that the Nifty may visit the bottom of the downward channel around 5150 - 5005 levels.

So lets trade on Nifty holding 5400 for bullish side and breaking below 5345 bearish side.

Please note that I have been giving a warning for options traders to be cautious due to expected volatility.

Happy trading day.




.

Nifty

Nifty

 Hourly chart is still in channel. Now at channel top. Nifty made high of 5417.90 which is 23.6% of the fall from 5754 to 5308. If this is the maximum pull back market can give for the fall. EW says the next down is going to be very strong. Suppose if Nifty moves from here on upside. Maximum it can go up to 5465 which is channel( downward channel broke down yesterday) retests.

Lets cross our fingers and wait for market move tomorrow. SGX nifty give a sense of move at 8:45 AM tomorrow. Also pre opening as well. Considering the festive season tomorrow, expecting less participation in the market. If at all the expected Fed new tomorrow gonna bad, our markets may predict even before results and continue correction as mentioned above.

Nifty is still in the channel. At the top end of the channel. Now Nifty made insider candle with bearish flag set up. The retrace is till 23.6% which is worrying fact. It would have retrace little more than that so that we will be thinking of bullishness. This is one way of bearish outlook analysis.

If we look at 12 EMA and 34 EMA on hourly charts, they both turning flat which signifies the short term pause. Untill they both converge together there is a chance that Nifty will trade flat or move a little higher. 12 HEMA @5407 and 34 HEMA @ 5485. There is a chance that Nifty may move higher and touch the 34 EMA and correct if moves past 12HEMA.

In hourly,Stochastic could not move past 80. turned down and crossed.RSI also looks turning down.

Moving above 5420 can take it to 5485 which is 34 HEMA. You are seeing only narrow range made. Conisdering the earlier fall along with this narrow range, you see bearish pattern. Fall could be same as pole length. Today BankNifty helped Nifty to hold back

EW says that now Nifty is in 2nd of 3 rd of C. I believe if 2nd will be completed at around 5465 - 5485 which may happen in Gap up or due to festive mood by EOD tomorrow if less participation is seen. a. 5307.60 - 5417.65 = 110.05 b. 5417.65 - 5356.35 = 61.3 c. 5356.35 - 5416.35 = 60 for now If at all a=c then c should end at around 5356.35+110.05 = 5465 approximately. If extends may be seen 5480 where 34 HEMA resists. We have to wait and see whether this comes in GAP up opening or slow move.

Nifty

Nifty

Yesterday I missed to post monthly chart which gave diamond break down. Here it is.A person with minimum knowledge in technical Analysis can make good profits if one stick to the basics. MACD is ready to give bearish sign on Montly charts.

If we draw an upward channel for almost one year rally of Nifty and the downward channel for this year 2013. We see the cluster zone where Nifty can pause for sometime or may see some support in this fall.Below is the chart showing these channels in Blue trend lines.There is previous supports and resistances taken multiple times in the range markets with Black horizontal trend line. The cluster zone as target for this Nifty fall is marked with Blue circle on right side of the chart where M formation will also end and trend lines are clustered.

As expressed in my previous post every raise is a sell on Nifty with a target price of 5145. At least for a range of 5150 to 5160. In process of reaching these targets Nifty MAY pause at intermediate supports at 5360/5270 and have a small pull back so that technicals will adjust and support the fall.

It is advised to traders that be short side in the market which are bearish and trail SL your trades so that you can make good money.

Hourly chart

Hourly chart says that Nifty is moving in a downward channel. It looks like Nifty took trend reversals yesterday in second session. However it could not cross make a new high in last 4 hours of trade before close. Downward channel resistance is falling at 5454 levels on spot Nifty. 12 HEMA is falling at 5470. These two values may act as resistances for tomorrow.Moving past these values may show some positive bias till 34 HEMA @ 5555.

Looking at Fibonacci resistances, for the raise from 5512 to 5764, below values may give resistance as well.
23.6% @ 5571.51
38.2% @ 5608.3
50%@ 5638

 Considering the Fall from 5764 to 5360 then below levels may act as support and resistances for the pull back.

23.6% @ 5669
38.2% @ 5610
61.8% @ 5515
76.4% @ 5456

Nifty

Nifty

Nifty Nifty highest tradable / voluminous index in Indian Stock market.Its every retailer question where will Nifty go on Monday. Or what levels Nifty will move in future. Here is what I feel.

Andrew Pitchfork Tren Lines:
Nifty failed to meet targets twice as per Andrew Pitchfork trend line methods. Marked in Blue Rectangle on upper side on chart.If we looks at the charts, Nifty is hitting the targets downside as per Pitchfork lines. So now every move seems to be sell until it moves past the target line on upside.

Above charts are from August Nifty Futures.

Recently, Nifty gave sell signal second time as well and closed below the line. Tomorrow is going to be little crucial to see the trade. Still I see bearishness in the market.

EW Lables:

As posted earlier, B wave completed with 3 wave structure at around 5754.45

Last Friday, Nifty corrected hugely as seen 4 years ago. They way bearish RED candles are formed, there seems to be more selling pressure than any interest of holding to the positions. Now nifty is moving in a down ward channel. Any opening at higher levels are to be sold into. In my other blog, earlier posted, buying puts or selling calls will give u more money in such a red candles are seen. We went with same strategy on Friday with 5600 puts in huge quantity which was a great success due to huge fall in Nifty.

Now nifty seems to be in a down ward channel moving to lower levels. As many of you know 3rd wave will be the longest wave, nifty may see more lower levels. Wave 1 of C is almost 600 points and then assuming 3rd wave C aslo minimum 600 points then from highs of 5754 the target to this fall could be around 5754 - 600= 5154. Many of us see some kind of positive divergence in Bank Nifty which will move upside that can hold the fall in Nifty. The way Nifty is at bottom of the channel, we have to maintain the SL on short postions till market gives reversal signal. RSI is going below 30 levels which is bearish signifying more bearish levels.

Please note that the below chart includes the pre opening prices of Nifty as well.

Daily:

If we look at the Daily charts on Nifty spot.Nifty is ready to break down the channel where it took support earlier.Stochastic is giving bearish signs. RSI is also trying to move down wards. We have to wait to give sell signal on daily charts.

Hourly:

Nifty 5 Minutes:

Nifty shows some kind of positive divergence in Nifty 5 minutes.If there is a small pull back with gap up open tomorrow, I strongly believe that this pull back can also be sold into until we see break down of the channels in shown in hourly charts.

Nifty Monthly:

Nifty monthly chart shows that Nifty is broke down the diamond pattern which is very bearish. Earlier we posted the diamond break down on Maruti with good targets which were achieved. Now Nifty gave the  same bearish signs breaking below the diamond pattern.Breaking below 5476 is a free fall for the Nifty.

Nifty View from My friend Raja Shaker

Generally I do not trade on Harmonic patterns. But my friend does. Below is the chart of Nifty with projected targets by Feb 2014.

GOLD

GOLD

This is the first time I'm writing on Gold.Gold took reversal from $1180. Gold was expected to see 1152 -1052 dollars.Gold took short term reversal and moving high.

Weekly Chart:

Gold gave a downward channel break out and sensing that there will be short term pull back.Breakout is marked with Blue triangle.Gold may pause in a trading range for a week or two with range bound mentioned with Blue Rectangle.Gold moved above 12 WEMA and trying to move towards 34 WEMA. Now it is moving in a small channel. Earlier lows which acted support for sometime may act as resistance now. Marked with Red line and showing with Red Downward arrow.

Daily Chart:

 200 DEMA on daily chart may act as resistance as well for sometime.

Fibonacci Retracemet :

If we look at the Fibo retracement of the fall, current raise almost reached 61.8% retracement. Closing above this may give potential chances of moving towards 50% retracement. before moving so, Gold may pause at around 61.8%.

Ichimoku Cloud.


Gold is trading well below Ichimoku cloud on weekly chart and looks like it is now trying to test the cloud once again on weekly basis. By the time Gold price reach the cloud, 200 WEMA could also fall in the same range of cloud.

If we look at daily chart, Gold prices recently moved above the Ichimoku cloud and trading above it. Now price looks moving towars 200 DEMA.

CNX IT

CNX IT


Many investors and traders are seeing IT sector as outperforming sector. It looks like that the stocks are in the are where one can book profits and away for sometime. Below is the CNX IT index where Index is moving in an expanding triangle.8000 to 8150 looks like profit booking area for IT stocks. Aggressive traders may also initiate shorts and hold.

Nifty

Nifty

Nifty have seen a sharp fall and now seeing a corrective move with same speed and momentum upward.On daily charts Nifty found support at 5486 levels which looks like a support of channel, trend line and few points away from GANN number (5476). Now nifty looks ready to show its move either way. Nifty have seen a sharp in a smaller channel shown in Blue trend lines. Now Nifty is near the upper end of the downward channel.Nifty may see resistance tomorrow at 5705 levels if it does not like to give a breakout of the channel. If moves out of this channel, then Nifty may see more upside.

Nifty made 38.2% retracement of 6093.35 - 5486.85 till 5704.75. Now it is a day to see the nifty move either side. Moving past 5705 is a break out to see more upside.

If we look at larger picture, Nifty also promising to see 5204 levels which is the trend line support of bigger channel in which nifty is trading this year.

RSI shows the it is bending downwards. Until and unless we see price action tomorrow, we may not be knowing the levels that nifty is kept awaiting for us.

Looking at Intra day chart, Hourly chart says that the Nifty completed its 1 of C wave from 6093 to 5486 and now it is wave 2 of C. The move from 5486 looks like expanding triangle which is forming a-b-c-d-e sub waves as shown in chart. If this wave count is correct then Nifty have to start correcting from tomorrow. The same area seems to be the downward channel resistance along with 12 EMA falling in the same area.

If at all we take the corrective wave 2 of C as 3 wave structure then the below count looks possible

a. from 5486 to 5644
b. from 5644 to 5579.05
c. from 5579.05 to XXXX ( assuming a=c then it have to rally till 5736.20)

So tomorrow if gives a break out then go long for targets of 5736 - 5740. If starts correcting from current levels of 5705 then we may see the lows of 5202 sooner.

Enjoy your trades.
Watch for tomorrows levels to see the Nifty moves.

Sectors looks weak are FMCG, Infra, Energy, Metals,Pharma,Realty
Strong are Media, BankNifty, Auto,Consumption,Finance

CNX Nifty

CNX Nifty

CNX nifty is falling as posted earlier.

Links from my other blog
Earlier posts 1 
Earlier Post 2
Earlier post 3

Link in this blog
Earlier Post 4

We have been continuously advising to be cautious on investments to go long. One would have been selective in investments. Nifty may still see some more downside before having a shorter term rally.

Here are the charts of different time frames.

Daily Chart:

Daily Chart shows that Nifty is moving in channels.Initial support may come at around 5620 - 5605 levels.
If this support is broken then, Nifty may see the levels of 5300+ levels.

Weekly Chart:

Weekly chart says, Nifty closed above the support line. All indicators turned down showing more weakness in coming weeks. If support is broken then we may see more lower levels.

Nifty Monthly Chart:

Monthly chart gave bearish sign 4 months ago. From then it is in the process of completing its diamond formation.Chart shows that Nifty is landed on its trend line. Breaking of this line shows more of bearish market actions which may drag nifty to more lower levels. All Indicators are turning negative to confirm the bearishness. Earlier also posted this diamond formation on daily charts.

Fibo Fans:

Fibo fans shows that there is some more downside from current levels before market taking shorted trem bounce. 5550 - 5540 could be the support by Fibi fans from where nifty could see a some bounce.

CNX Auto

CNX Auto

CNX Auto is into side ways moving in a triangular pattern.Due to lack of earning growth, falling sales numbers, investors are in dilemma to accumulate these rate sensitive stocks or not. If this triangle is given a break down we may see some correction in Auto stocks. However we see some support at around 4260 - 4310 levels. If at all this traingle is broken and start falling, we may good levels to accumulate the auto stocks for long term investments.

CNX IT

CNX IT

CNX IT had a good rally in last month. It made new highs in the year where as other indices are making lows. In the month of July IT index rallied as USD is growing over INR expecting good earnings growth by IT companies.

Now Index looks over bought and may see some correction. RSI, STCH & MACD shows some negative divergence where Index may correct in coming week.

So looks for the stocks like  TCS, HCL TECH, WIPRO to go short on appropriate levels with smaller SL for quick gains.

PSU BANK Index

CNX PSU BANK

It looks good time to be long on PSU banks. Index is moving in a channel for almost 2 years. Index once again visited the bottom of the channel. It looks index formed a base there and ready to move up. Yesterday Index moved above 12 Dema and also closed above the trend line. PSU banks looks bullish for short term. Index may see 2791 levels.

Index breaking of this channel may not be good for PSU banks.

CNX FMCG

CNX FMCG

CNX FMCG is moving in a channel. Most of the times the index traded in higher part of the channel which shows the interest of the investors to hold to the stocks in this group. However it looks Index gave false breakdown(market with circle) once.

Index is now ready to give a breakout of the channel which promise that the FMCG is going to be strong going forward. However the daily technicals RSI, Stochastic looks started forming a negative divergence.
Price action promising more up move on index.

Nifty

Nifty

Earlier felt that Nifty is making a diamond pattern and from where it could be chappy and break down.
Nifty slowly inched up and made 78.6% retracement of the previous fall ( from 6229 to 5566).

This entire retracement happened in a channel with many gap ups/downs.

Unless and until Nifty moves below 6018, Nifty can move higher. However Stochastic shows some -ve divergence on daily charts while price is moving higher.Caution is advised for those who like to be long.


Frpm 5566 to current rally, if we take it as Elite B wave, then

a. From 5566 to 5904 = 338 points
b. From 5904 to 5760 = 144 points
c. From 5760 to 6093 = 333 points
(6098 could be possible).
Which looks like a=c almost.

Tomorrow could be trend deciding day whether nifty surpass these levels and extend its gains. Also move above 78.6% retracement of previous fall.

BankNifty

Earlier posted on Bank Nifty in my another blog with channel supports where Bank Nifty trying to move. Now it looks it almost nearing that level.Find my earlier post on Bank Nifty.

BankNifty may trade in a tight range until RBI news comes out on rate cut/ increase.

CNX PHARMA

CNX PHARMA

CNX PHARMA looks an outperformer in all indices in the month of July 2013 till now. Index is making
Hanging man
Hammer
Hammer at peak of its rally it seems. Stochastick shows Negative divergence. However RSI did not give any of such signs.

This last raise seems to be very fast and quick. Now it looks ready to end its rally and go for some correction. So be selective while you go long on Pharma stocks from now on.

I see that the index is forming CNX Nifty in its formation. If this is true, there could be some speedy down move in the index.

Nifty

Nifty

This week end, I found some interesting pattern formation in Nifty chart. May be it is a presumption, but I feel Nifty is making this formation. I sent this chart to few people where they said, we need to look for nifty moment in few days which may confirm with price action.

After two days of trading, it looks nifty is moving in the same pattern.This week could be a good day to give clear picture of how Nifty is going to move. If at all this is how Nifty is going to make moves in coming days, we may see very narrow range of trading in coming days with indecisive moves.

Here is todays chart with same view. I tried to look at the

If we look at the EW labeling for the current fall where it started at high point 6229.45.
It looks like the fall from 6229.45 is having 5 subwaves and the current upmove is just corrective rally with three waves.It looks nifty started moving down today. Tomorrows/this weeks action may confirm clearly how market is going to trend.

Few interesting points to note here are. If the wave count we are taking is correct then, the high made few days ago at 6038 is approximately 70.70% of previous fall from highs of 6229.45 to 5566.

While waves unfolding and price action represents we may get very clear picture on Nifty.

Bank Nifty

BankNifty

BankNifty is one of the major index that could influence the Nifty moment in Indian Stock market.
Bank Nifty is in an upword channel for almost one and half year. For almost a month index is trading just above 300 to 400 points above the support with more volatility. Suppose index breaking 11150 is channel breakdown and bearish to the index.

In one way index seems to be forming a bearish flag with pole size of approximately 2400 points. and Flag width of 779 points.Breaking of 11030 seems to be very bearish to the Bank Nifty with good targets.


Looking at the price moment and applying the EW labeling on daily candlesticks. The trend seems to be downward. The fall started at 13414.3 till 11033.75. Price retraced this fall and moved above 23.6%( 11595.6) but could not even touch the 38.2% retracement at 11943.12. Whenever there is a smaller retracements in wave moment, the next moment in trend going to be huge. If this downward moment is just started at 13414.3 then, there is going to be another huge down move awaiting.

Tomorrow there could be a small pull back rally till 11440 levels where one can initiate fresh shorts once again.

Good Luck !

Welcome Note

Hi Everyone,


Welcome to Indices Analysis. Very shortly you will see analysis of indices and stocks in those indices which could out perform.My apologies for kept you waiting for analysis on Induces. Keep patience for few days. Due to heavy schedules, Could not get time to post analysis on Nifty. Here I will discuss about the trading strategies as well. Sometime middle of the next week onwards, I will be back again with postings.

Thanks for bearing me. Happy Trading.

Anandha

Why this Blog is for

Hi Everyone,

Appreciate your overwelming response on my earlier blog named Trade with confidence in technical Analysis.
Your interest towards my analysis made me more responsible in analyzing the stocks and trying to put best trading opportunities for quite some time. Most of the times when I posted my charts, I used to take calls in Options & Futures in the direction of the price moment which mentioned in the charts.

I'd like to start writing about the indices which are more liquid and can have a systematic moves with an identified trends. I follow a systematic approach in analyzing the stocks.

1. I look at the indices like NIFTY,BANKNIFTY, CNX IT, CNX FINANCE, CNX PHARMA and CNX FMCG and will identify which index looks good to go long or short.

2.After identifying the trend of the index, I will dig into the stocks in those indices which will impact the current moves in the indices.
3. Filtering out few stocks from all these indices, stocks, we choose the one trading with good volumes and at support levels.

I also created my own indices giving weight-age to the stocks, which will let me know the set of stocks are moving higher or lower.

I'd like to post my analysis on Indices where we can go long or short for time to time. So that my blog followers can identify which sector stocks are going to push the market up or down and intern trade in those stocks to make good money.

Bear with me for sometime as schedule looks very tight for me nowadays.