Sunday, August 18, 2013

Nifty

Nifty

Nifty Nifty highest tradable / voluminous index in Indian Stock market.Its every retailer question where will Nifty go on Monday. Or what levels Nifty will move in future. Here is what I feel.

Andrew Pitchfork Tren Lines:
Nifty failed to meet targets twice as per Andrew Pitchfork trend line methods. Marked in Blue Rectangle on upper side on chart.If we looks at the charts, Nifty is hitting the targets downside as per Pitchfork lines. So now every move seems to be sell until it moves past the target line on upside.




Above charts are from August Nifty Futures.

Recently, Nifty gave sell signal second time as well and closed below the line. Tomorrow is going to be little crucial to see the trade. Still I see bearishness in the market.

EW Lables:

As posted earlier, B wave completed with 3 wave structure at around 5754.45
Last Friday, Nifty corrected hugely as seen 4 years ago. They way bearish RED candles are formed, there seems to be more selling pressure than any interest of holding to the positions. Now nifty is moving in a down ward channel. Any opening at higher levels are to be sold into. In my other blog, earlier posted, buying puts or selling calls will give u more money in such a red candles are seen. We went with same strategy on Friday with 5600 puts in huge quantity which was a great success due to huge fall in Nifty.

Now nifty seems to be in a down ward channel moving to lower levels. As many of you know 3rd wave will be the longest wave, nifty may see more lower levels. Wave 1 of C is almost 600 points and then assuming 3rd wave C aslo minimum 600 points then from highs of 5754 the target to this fall could be around 5754 - 600= 5154. Many of us see some kind of positive divergence in Bank Nifty which will move upside that can hold the fall in Nifty. The way Nifty is at bottom of the channel, we have to maintain the SL on short postions till market gives reversal signal. RSI is going below 30 levels which is bearish signifying more bearish levels.


Please note that the below chart includes the pre opening prices of Nifty as well.

Daily:

If we look at the Daily charts on Nifty spot.Nifty is ready to break down the channel where it took support earlier.Stochastic is giving bearish signs. RSI is also trying to move down wards. We have to wait to give sell signal on daily charts.

Hourly:

Nifty 5 Minutes:

Nifty shows some kind of positive divergence in Nifty 5 minutes.If there is a small pull back with gap up open tomorrow, I strongly believe that this pull back can also be sold into until we see break down of the channels in shown in hourly charts.


Nifty Monthly:

Nifty monthly chart shows that Nifty is broke down the diamond pattern which is very bearish. Earlier we posted the diamond break down on Maruti with good targets which were achieved. Now Nifty gave the  same bearish signs breaking below the diamond pattern.Breaking below 5476 is a free fall for the Nifty.

Nifty View from My friend Raja Shaker

Generally I do not trade on Harmonic patterns. But my friend does. Below is the chart of Nifty with projected targets by Feb 2014.






Saturday, August 17, 2013

GOLD

GOLD

This is the first time I'm writing on Gold.Gold took reversal from $1180. Gold was expected to see 1152 -1052 dollars.Gold took short term reversal and moving high.

Weekly Chart:

Gold gave a downward channel break out and sensing that there will be short term pull back.Breakout is marked with Blue triangle.Gold may pause in a trading range for a week or two with range bound mentioned with Blue Rectangle.Gold moved above 12 WEMA and trying to move towards 34 WEMA. Now it is moving in a small channel. Earlier lows which acted support for sometime may act as resistance now. Marked with Red line and showing with Red Downward arrow.


Daily Chart:

 200 DEMA on daily chart may act as resistance as well for sometime.



Fibonacci Retracemet :

If we look at the Fibo retracement of the fall, current raise almost reached 61.8% retracement. Closing above this may give potential chances of moving towards 50% retracement. before moving so, Gold may pause at around 61.8%.

Ichimoku Cloud.


Gold is trading well below Ichimoku cloud on weekly chart and looks like it is now trying to test the cloud once again on weekly basis. By the time Gold price reach the cloud, 200 WEMA could also fall in the same range of cloud.


If we look at daily chart, Gold prices recently moved above the Ichimoku cloud and trading above it. Now price looks moving towars 200 DEMA.




Tuesday, August 13, 2013

CNX IT

CNX IT


Many investors and traders are seeing IT sector as outperforming sector. It looks like that the stocks are in the are where one can book profits and away for sometime. Below is the CNX IT index where Index is moving in an expanding triangle.8000 to 8150 looks like profit booking area for IT stocks. Aggressive traders may also initiate shorts and hold.


Nifty

Nifty

Nifty have seen a sharp fall and now seeing a corrective move with same speed and momentum upward.On daily charts Nifty found support at 5486 levels which looks like a support of channel, trend line and few points away from GANN number (5476). Now nifty looks ready to show its move either way. Nifty have seen a sharp in a smaller channel shown in Blue trend lines. Now Nifty is near the upper end of the downward channel.Nifty may see resistance tomorrow at 5705 levels if it does not like to give a breakout of the channel. If moves out of this channel, then Nifty may see more upside.


Nifty made 38.2% retracement of 6093.35 - 5486.85 till 5704.75. Now it is a day to see the nifty move either side. Moving past 5705 is a break out to see more upside.

If we look at larger picture, Nifty also promising to see 5204 levels which is the trend line support of bigger channel in which nifty is trading this year.

RSI shows the it is bending downwards. Until and unless we see price action tomorrow, we may not be knowing the levels that nifty is kept awaiting for us.

Looking at Intra day chart, Hourly chart says that the Nifty completed its 1 of C wave from 6093 to 5486 and now it is wave 2 of C. The move from 5486 looks like expanding triangle which is forming a-b-c-d-e sub waves as shown in chart. If this wave count is correct then Nifty have to start correcting from tomorrow. The same area seems to be the downward channel resistance along with 12 EMA falling in the same area.

If at all we take the corrective wave 2 of C as 3 wave structure then the below count looks possible

a. from 5486 to 5644
b. from 5644 to 5579.05
c. from 5579.05 to XXXX ( assuming a=c then it have to rally till 5736.20)

So tomorrow if gives a break out then go long for targets of 5736 - 5740. If starts correcting from current levels of 5705 then we may see the lows of 5202 sooner.



Enjoy your trades.
Watch for tomorrows levels to see the Nifty moves.

Sectors looks weak are FMCG, Infra, Energy, Metals,Pharma,Realty
Strong are Media, BankNifty, Auto,Consumption,Finance


Sunday, August 4, 2013

CNX Nifty

CNX Nifty

CNX nifty is falling as posted earlier.

Links from my other blog
Earlier posts 1 
Earlier Post 2
Earlier post 3

Link in this blog
Earlier Post 4

We have been continuously advising to be cautious on investments to go long. One would have been selective in investments. Nifty may still see some more downside before having a shorter term rally.

Here are the charts of different time frames.

Daily Chart:



Daily Chart shows that Nifty is moving in channels.Initial support may come at around 5620 - 5605 levels.
If this support is broken then, Nifty may see the levels of 5300+ levels.

Weekly Chart:


Weekly chart says, Nifty closed above the support line. All indicators turned down showing more weakness in coming weeks. If support is broken then we may see more lower levels.

Nifty Monthly Chart:



Monthly chart gave bearish sign 4 months ago. From then it is in the process of completing its diamond formation.Chart shows that Nifty is landed on its trend line. Breaking of this line shows more of bearish market actions which may drag nifty to more lower levels. All Indicators are turning negative to confirm the bearishness. Earlier also posted this diamond formation on daily charts.

Fibo Fans:

Fibo fans shows that there is some more downside from current levels before market taking shorted trem bounce. 5550 - 5540 could be the support by Fibi fans from where nifty could see a some bounce.




CNX Auto

CNX Auto

CNX Auto is into side ways moving in a triangular pattern.Due to lack of earning growth, falling sales numbers, investors are in dilemma to accumulate these rate sensitive stocks or not. If this triangle is given a break down we may see some correction in Auto stocks. However we see some support at around 4260 - 4310 levels. If at all this traingle is broken and start falling, we may good levels to accumulate the auto stocks for long term investments.




CNX IT

CNX IT

CNX IT had a good rally in last month. It made new highs in the year where as other indices are making lows. In the month of July IT index rallied as USD is growing over INR expecting good earnings growth by IT companies.

Now Index looks over bought and may see some correction. RSI, STCH & MACD shows some negative divergence where Index may correct in coming week.

So looks for the stocks like  TCS, HCL TECH, WIPRO to go short on appropriate levels with smaller SL for quick gains.