Tuesday, August 20, 2013



 Hourly chart is still in channel. Now at channel top. Nifty made high of 5417.90 which is 23.6% of the fall from 5754 to 5308. If this is the maximum pull back market can give for the fall. EW says the next down is going to be very strong. Suppose if Nifty moves from here on upside. Maximum it can go up to 5465 which is channel( downward channel broke down yesterday) retests.

Lets cross our fingers and wait for market move tomorrow. SGX nifty give a sense of move at 8:45 AM tomorrow. Also pre opening as well. Considering the festive season tomorrow, expecting less participation in the market. If at all the expected Fed new tomorrow gonna bad, our markets may predict even before results and continue correction as mentioned above. 
Nifty is still in the channel. At the top end of the channel. Now Nifty made insider candle with bearish flag set up. The retrace is till 23.6% which is worrying fact. It would have retrace little more than that so that we will be thinking of bullishness. This is one way of bearish outlook analysis. 
If we look at 12 EMA and 34 EMA on hourly charts, they both turning flat which signifies the short term pause. Untill they both converge together there is a chance that Nifty will trade flat or move a little higher. 12 HEMA @5407 and 34 HEMA @ 5485. There is a chance that Nifty may move higher and touch the 34 EMA and correct if moves past 12HEMA. 
In hourly,Stochastic could not move past 80. turned down and crossed.RSI also looks turning down. 
Moving above 5420 can take it to 5485 which is 34 HEMA. You are seeing only narrow range made. Conisdering the earlier fall along with this narrow range, you see bearish pattern. Fall could be same as pole length.
Today BankNifty helped Nifty to hold back 
EW says that now Nifty is in 2nd of 3 rd of C. I believe if 2nd will be completed at around 5465 - 5485 which may happen in Gap up or due to festive mood by EOD tomorrow if less participation is seen.
a. 5307.60 - 5417.65 = 110.05
b. 5417.65 - 5356.35 = 61.3
c. 5356.35 - 5416.35 = 60 for now
If at all a=c then c should end at around 5356.35+110.05 = 5465 approximately. If extends may be seen 5480 where 34 HEMA resists. We have to wait and see whether this comes in GAP up opening or slow move.

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